Just under the wire: Oscar predictions

As I've written before, I've become somewhat of a movie whore. At least three times in the past month my dad has called for recommendations, to which I usually respond "I don't really think it's 'your' type of movie, dad." But I thought I'd season the popcorn with a shake of narcissism and give you some suggestions for the Oscars tonight (we'll see how close I come0:

1. Best Picture
Bacon's pick: The Kids are All Right
Academy's pick: The King's Speech
It always seems like the Oscars try to find the most obscure historical events and blast them into the headlines with a sweep of the awards. In this case, I wouldn't mind the accolades for this film. However, my pick is based on what I saw as the best overall film on the list in terms of both leading and supporting actors, screenplay (it makes me want to write movies), cinematography, and directing. If you didn't see it, the DVD is well worth the time. (Also in the name of full disclosure I haven't seen "127 hours" or "Winter's Bone" yet, so I don't really have a basis for their judgment except if I haven't seen it yet, it probably wasn't a top contender).

2. Best Actor
Bacon and Academy's Pick: Colin Firth
One of the best acted roles I've seen in quite some time, especially in a historical drama. He managed to pull of pity for his character without sliding into cheesy. Hard to do, especially with a British accent.

3. Best Actress
Bacon's Pick: Annette Bening or Natalie Portman
Academy's Pick: Natalie Portman
Yes, I thought Black Swan was an amazing film. Yes, I think Natalie Portman went through an amazing transformation, both physically and psychologically, for the film. But I don't think that should awards should be based just on the amount of effort it took to pull off the role.

4. Supporting Actor
Bacon's Pick: Christian Bale or Geoffrey Rush
Academy's Pick: toss up
This is the one category where any of the nominees would be a well-deserved winner.

5. Supporting Actress
Bacon's Pick: Hailee Steinfeld
Academy's Pick: Melissa Leo or Hailee Steinfeld
While the women of "The Fighter" all pulled off some incredibly moving and well-acted performances, the young Ms. Steinfeld held her own cast aside both Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon, which is not easy to do even if your horse isn't dragging you through the mud in the wild west.

Left out, but still noteworthy
Several recent films that didn't find their way onto the Academy Awards nominee list are still excellent uses of 2 hours of your time. In particular I was mesmerized by "Love and Other Drugs" (and not just because of the excessive nakedness of Jake Gyllenhaal) and "The Other Woman."